"In early 2000, right as the U.S. stock market was peaking, I predicted the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq would drop 50%, 60% and 70% (respectively) within a few years. All three forecasts came true within less than 2 years. The only way the U.S. stock market could have dropped so much so fast is if a major, impulsive rally had ended at 2000's high (the longer-term evidence suggests that high was the end of a 3rd wave, so let's call it Cycle Wave-III).
Based on orthodox Elliott Wave, in a standard impulsion, no part of wave-4 can share any of the price range of wave-2. Adding to that foundation, NEoWave tells us wave-4 must also take more time than wave-3, but normally not much more than 161.8% of its time. Plus, wave-4 must retrace at least 33% of the price rally of wave-3 and produce a decline larger than any seen during the formation of wave-3. So, the minute the S&P retraced more than 33% of wave-III and dropped more (%-wise) than any correction within wave-III, the start of wave-IV was confirmed.
We know wave-III consumed 18 years, so simply "applying the rules" listed above, it was easy to "predict" wave-IV in the S&P would bottom ABOVE 400 (its low so far is 666 in March 2009) and that it would last at least 18 years. Rounding off the time consumed by wave-III, in early 2000, right as the bear market was starting, I stated wave-IV would last 20 years or more. Calculating 161.8% of the time of wave-III we get 29 years; as a result, standard NEoWave rules allow me to confidently state (not predict, because these are requirements of wave structure, not opinions) that wave-IV will last between 20 and 30 years. Since wave-IV began in 2000, it will not end until 2020, but could drag on until 2030!"
http://www.neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-989.asp
